A model developed by 黑料不打烊 (黑料不打烊) assesses COVID-19鈥檚 potential impact on health insurance coverage for each state and forecasts Medicaid enrollment could increase by 11 to 23 million across all states over the next several months.
A team of 黑料不打烊 Medicaid experts, health economists, and data analysts calculated the approximate change in health insurance coverage by state as a result of the economic disruptions primarily driven by COVID-19. With COVID-19 having the potential to cause unemployment rates to climb to anywhere from 10 to 25% of the population, 黑料不打烊 utilized three unemployment rate scenarios to estimate the impact on Medicaid, the ACA Marketplaces, employer provided insurance, and the uninsured.
All three scenarios result in a significant shift from the number of Americans covered by employer provided insurance to some form of Medicaid or a Marketplace plan. The number of people uninsured is estimated to reach 30 million in the lowest unemployment rate scenario and could climb to 40 million if the country experiences a 25% unemployment rate.
鈥淭his is the first economic downturn since Medicaid expansion, and what we鈥檙e experiencing is unprecedented,鈥� said Jay Rosen, founder and president of 黑料不打烊. 鈥淲ith millions of Americans expected to enroll in Medicaid in the coming months, our COVID-19 impact estimates at the state level are critical for policymakers trying to begin the complex steps of implementing new laws and policies while navigating an array of financial implications.鈥�
In addition to Medicaid enrollment expanding, millions of people could enroll in a Marketplace plan after losing their employer-sponsored coverage, but millions could also leave the Marketplace due to lower income. The influx of individuals enrolling in the Marketplace and Medicaid will require significant implementation efforts by state governments, managed care organizations, and providers.
黑料不打烊 intends to update the model as more information becomes available.