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What the Senate's Budget Approval Means for the Future

On July 1, 2025, the US Senate voted 51鈥�50, to advance its version of , continuing the budget reconciliation process. Like the bill that the House passed in May, the Senate language calls for making significant changes to the Medicare, Medicaid, Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplace programs, as well as health savings accounts (HSAs) and publicly funded programs such as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.

Relative to the House bill, however, the Senate differs substantially in approach and scope. Thus, the bill has been sent back to the House for consideration. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) intends to accelerate voting with the goal of clearing the legislation in the House by July 4, 2025.

Key Differences Between House and Senate Bills

Notable differences between the House and Senate packages pertain to the following:

• Medicaid Provider Payments: The Senate version includes more restrictive changes to federal Medicaid provider taxes and state-directed payment policies. These changes are expected to affect hospitals that rely on Medicaid supplemental payments. The Senate bill also would create a $50 billion Rural Health Transformation Program to mitigate financial strain on healthcare providers in rural communities. The provision includes several stipulations regarding distributions, allocations, eligibility standards, and permissible uses of the funds, which will likely prompt considerable ongoing engagement from stakeholders if signed into law, particularly among hospitals and clinics that will face substantial headwinds under other components of the legislation.
• ACA Marketplaces: Like the House bill, the Senate version includes provisions to recapture full ACA subsidy amounts, restrict subsidy eligibility for certain immigrant populations, and require verification of ACA subsidy eligibility. The Senate bill neither appropriates funding for cost sharing reduction subsidies nor includes provisions regarding the Marketplace Integrity and Affordability rule, which the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) finalized on June 20, 2025. In addition, the Senate bill offers several smaller flexibilities intended to increase usage of HSAs but does not include the full suite of HSA changes included in the House bill. The Senate language also does not call for expanding individual coverage health reimbursement arrangements (ICHRAs).
• More Limited Medicare Package: Although the Senate language restores the ORPHAN Cures Act and adds a modest one-year payment increase under the Medicare Physician Fee Schedule (PFS), the bill omits a number of significant Medicare policies included in the House version, including a much broader PFS investment tied to the Medicare Economic Index, as well as multiple pharmacy benefit manager (PBM) reforms under Medicare Part D. The Senate legislation also excludes two Medicaid PBM provisions that the House had included.

Estimates from the Congressional Budget Office

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has provided several of the cost and coverage impacts of the healthcare and tax provisions in multiple versions of the reconciliation legislation. CBO has provided cost estimates for the , as well as the Senate but has yet to release information on the final Senate version. Of note, CBO estimated the following:

• The Medicaid, Medicare, and ACA related provisions in the Senate substitute amendment would reduce healthcare spending by approximately $1.15 trillion over the next 10 years.
• The House bill would, by 2034, add 10.9 million people to the number of uninsured individuals in the United States.

What to Watch

Stakeholders should plan for the financial, policy, and operational impacts of the many provisions that could be enacted, including:

• New administrative requirements for enrollment that will place additional obligations on individuals seeking coverage and which will require more state resources to implement and manage. Community engagement and work requirements are scheduled to take effect December 31, 2026.
• Downward Medicaid financial pressures due to fewer federal funds, which will stress state budgets and states鈥� ability to maintain existing programs. This situation could lead some states to scale back eligibility for Medicaid, limitenrollment for optional programs, or some combination of these. Additionally, states could be expected to address increases in uncompensated care among their providers.
• A pause on implementation of previously finalized regulations that streamlined the Medicaid enrollment process for individuals.

The combination of the House and Senate reconciliation bills and the recently finalized Marketplace Program Integrity and Affordability rule indicate an uncertain future for cost sharing subsides and enhanced premium tax credits in Marketplace programs. Healthcare stakeholders should prepare for the impact of the expiration of the enhanced premium tax credits would have on benefit packages, enrollee risk profiles, uncompensated care, and other key issues affecting access, cost, and outcomes.

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To learn more about the these policy changes and the impact on your organization,听contact our featured experts:听, Andrea Maresca, and .

From State Discussions to National Policies: Healthcare in Focus

Since January 1, 2025, (SOR), an 黑料不打烊 Company, has hosted eight conferences across states. SOR conferences give providers, health plans, lawmakers, and other stakeholders from all areas of healthcare the opportunity to have real-time discussions about pressing healthcare issues. These events provide a forum to bring together leaders with different perspectives and areas of expertise to discuss, digest, and synthesize issues and challenges at the state and local levels. These discussions allow states and their partners to improve healthcare delivery and prepare for changes before they happen.

This article explores common themes and issues addressed during the state-specific meetings.

Common Trends and State Priorities

Although each state has unique challenges and priorities, there is clear overlap in the issues being addressed. The exchange of ideas and best practices at these meetings is fostering a collaborative approach to tackling some of the most pressing challenges facing our nation today. Key themes include:

• Improving healthcare accessibility and affordability. Many states are grappling with similar issues, such as the rising costs of medical services and federal policy changes that will have varying implications for the healthcare sector, especially publicly financed health insurance programs. From new rules coming out of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) to the 鈥淥ne, Big Beautiful Bill Act,鈥� which calls for reducing Medicaid funding and federal work requirements, healthcare industry leaders have been considering how these provisions will affect public healthcare programs. It was evident that these issues are at the forefront of state priorities, as leaders from different regions shared their strategies and experiences.
• Assessing the evolving landscape for artificial intelligence (AI) and other technologies. Stakeholders discussed the state-specific landscape and opportunities for technologies such as AI, health data information, wearable health tools, and other digital health solutions. They explored opportunities to improve access to services and achieve efficiencies, while seeking to understand the potential limitations of advancements in technology.
• Addressing the opioid crisis. States are taking various approaches to combat the opioid epidemic, from increasing funding for addiction treatment programs to implementing stricter regulations on prescription medications. The urgency of this issue was palpable, with speakers and participants sharing personal stories and data to underscore the impact of the crisis on their communities. Many panel discussions also focused on approaches to improve behavioral health coverage parity, access to 988 services, and care coordination.
• Attracting and retaining all types of clinicians. Each state has designated health professional shortage areas and is thinking creatively about how recruit and keep healthcare practitioners. For example, many sessions at the SOR events explored where states are investing in educational programs to train the next generation of healthcare professionals. Loan repayment programs are also being expanded to incentivize clinicians to work in underserved areas. In addition, states are streamlining licensure processes to make it easier for healthcare providers to practice across state lines.

The conferences also provided a platform to discuss a range of other healthcare and health-related issues. Payment reform was a hot topic, with states exploring ways to make healthcare more affordable and efficient. Attendees were engaged in discussions about the impact of the federal Medicaid policy changes to coverage for health-related social needs (HRSNs), and the importance of community level strategies to address factors like housing, food security, and transportation. Maternal healthcare, the reentry population, the aging population, and rural health were other significant topics, each contextualized by the state-specific challenges and innovative solutions being explored.

What to Watch

The federal health policy landscape will continue to change over the coming months, which will greatly affect how states approach healthcare, especially Medicaid services. The policy changes and the downstream implications for state and local governments and their partners will be at the heart of discussions at the upcoming 黑料不打烊 (黑料不打烊) National Conference, Adapting for Success in a Changing Healthcare Landscape, and State of Reform conferences. Key topics include:

• The federal budget. On July 1, 2025, the Senate approved a tax and spending package that would cut over $1 trillion from healthcare, including $940 billion from Medicaid over 10 years. The bill introduces work requirements, provider tax limits, and stricter eligibility checks and is projected to increase the number of uninsured people by nearly 12 million, according to the Congressional Budget Office. The bill鈥檚 provisions will likely significantly disrupt the federal share of Medicaid funding so states will need to prepare and decide how to fund optional programs. Stakeholders will also want to prepare for the churn among their clients and expected drop in enrollment in publicly financed programs.
• Medicaid work requirements. The federal work requirements in the House-passed and Senate-passed budget bills will require states to make policy and operational changes, including new systems and processes that meet the new federal mandates. State officials will have to tailor their work requirement programs to meet the capabilities and interests of the people who live in their respective states.
• The impact of CMS actions. The Trump Administration鈥檚 new regulations and executive actions, particularly those announced by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS), will affect states in various ways. The changing portfolio, for example, may provide states with new opportunities to participate in care delivery models. CMS鈥檚 decision to of new or existing requests for federal matching funds through Section 1115 demonstration waivers for designated state health programs and designated state investment programs may influence how states fund and deliver HRSN services.

Connect with Us

Join a range of healthcare stakeholders, including 黑料不打烊 experts, at one of the upcoming . These events provide a unique opportunity to delve into state and local-specific discussions, allowing for a deeper understanding of regional healthcare challenges and solutions.

We also invite you to continue these important conversations at the national level at 黑料不打烊’s 2025 conference, , which will take place October 14鈭�16 in New Orleans, LA. This conference will focus on both state and federal issues, fostering collaboration and learning among state and federal agencies, payers, health systems, providers, and other key stakeholders.

For more information on the 黑料不打烊 conference, contact Andrea Maresca. For more information on State of Reform, contact SOR program director Katharine Weiss.