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CMS ACCESS Model: A New On-Ramp to Outcomes-Based, Tech-Enabled Care in Traditional Medicare

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The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) Innovation Center recently published applications for its new  (Advancing Chronic Care with Effective, Scalable Solutions), a 10-year voluntary initiative beginning July 2026. The model is designed to advance outcomes-based, technology-enabled care delivery in Original Medicare and aligns with the Innovation Center鈥檚 priorities of strengthening prevention, empowering beneficiaries, and promoting performance-based competition. ACCESS is particularly suited to organizations with mature clinical operations and data infrastructure, offering a new pathway for tech-supported services. 

This article summarizes the model鈥檚 design, highlights key considerations for prospective applicants, and addresses common questions our Medicare and technology experts fielded during a recent Health Management Associates (黑料不打烊)/Leavitt Partners webinar

What the ACCESS Model Is Testing 

ACCESS evaluates whether Outcome-Aligned Payments (OAPs)鈥攔ecurring payments contingent on measurable clinical improvement鈥攃an reduce spending while maintaining or improving quality for beneficiaries with chronic conditions. The model tests whether incentivizing technology supported care can produce reliable clinical outcomes while complementing traditional care delivery. 

Who may participate? Organizations must be Medicare Part B鈥揺nrolled providers or suppliers (excluding DMEPOS [Durable Medical Equipment, Prosthetics, Orthotics, and Supplies] and labs). Participants may enroll beneficiaries directly, operate across multiple clinical tracks, and manage all qualifying conditions within each selected track. Beneficiary participation is voluntary, and individuals may switch ACCESS participants every 90 days. 

Clinical tracks. At launch, the four clinical tracks reflect high-prevalence chronic conditions with established care pathways and strong evidence for technology-supported interventions: 

  • Early Cardio-Kidney-Metabolic (eCKM)听
  • Cardio-Kidney-Metabolic (CKM)听
  • Musculoskeletal (MSK)听
  • Behavioral Health (BH)听

Payment. OAPs vary by track and performance period. CMS pays a portion prospectively each quarter and withholds 50 percent pending reconciliation based on: 

  • Clinical outcomes attainment: The percentage of aligned beneficiaries who complete the 12鈥憁onth performance period and achieve track鈥憇pecific clinical targets relative to their baseline.听
  • Substitute鈥憇pend test: Ensures beneficiaries do not receive duplicative听fee-for-service (FFS)听services for conditions managed under ACCESS.听

Technology and data exchange. ACCESS takes a tech-forward approach. Key expectations include use of Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources (FHIR庐) based Application Programming Interfaces (APIs)鈥痜or eligibility, consent, claims sharing, and care coordination鈥攑art of the broader federal push to modernize the health data ecosystem. CMS also plans to publish a public directory that lists participants, tracks, cost-sharing policies, and risk-adjusted outcomes to enable consumer and clinician choice. 

Regulatory coordination. To complement ACCESS and expand the pipeline of technology-supported interventions, the US Food and Drug Administration鈥檚 (FDA)  (Technology-Enabled Meaningful Patient Outcomes)  allows selected US-based digital health device manufacturers to participate while generating real-world evidence. Up to 40 device manufacturers may participate across clinical areas. 

This coordinated CMSFDA effort is intended to reduce barriers to innovation and accelerate access to safe, effective digital tools that can support chronic disease management. 

Key Considerations for Applicants 

Program integrity and fraud/abuse. CMS has emphasized program integrity across Medicare and Medicaid, and ACCESS reflects that emphasis. Applicants and their parent organizations should expect rigorous screening. Participants must also operationalize controls to pass the substitute spend test and maintain auditable evidence of outcomes and beneficiary consent. 

Overlap with Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs) and other models. Patients may participate in ACCESS and be aligned with an ACO simultaneously; however, 鈥減articipant overlap鈥 raises important operational and financial issues. ACCESS includes an FFS exclusion policy that prohibits participants or affiliated entities from billing Medicare FFS for any services delivered to the same beneficiaries for the duration of their ACCESS episode. As a result, traditional providers, ACO-aligned clinicians, and integrated delivery systems must assess whether they can segment patient populations or if partnering is more feasible. 

Eligibility and clinical scope. ACCESS is focused on relatively stable, chronically ill beneficiaries and excludes those with more acute/severe conditions. Participants must accept responsibility for all qualifying conditions a beneficiary has within a track. 

翱耻迟肠辞尘别蝉听辫别谤蹿辞谤尘补苍肠别.听The听ACCESS Model places substantial听emphasis on clinical听performance听and care coordination. Participants听are paid in full only if enough patients hit outcomes targets.听Early cohorts will听likely skew听toward organizations with mature clinical protocols, robust engagement models, and demonstrated outcomes.听Applicants should听be听financially听prepared听to听tolerate withholds, beneficiary switching, and听follow-on听period payment reductions after year one.听

Digital infrastructure and interoperability. ACCESS presumes API-driven data exchange, including consent capture, eligibility checks, claims/clinical data integration, and bidirectional information sharing with the patient鈥檚 broader care team. Applicants should ensure they have a FHIR API server and meet the requirements described in the CMS .

Go-to-market and referral strategy. Beneficiary alignment is voluntary and will be facilitated by CMS鈥檚 planned public directory with risk-adjusted outcomes. Access participants will benefit from strong referral relationships鈥攅specially with ACOs and primary care providers鈥攂oth to enroll eligible beneficiaries and to minimize substitute services. A field strategy grounded in evidence, patient engagement, and interoperability with local providers is critical to success. 

Connect with Us 

 for the first ACCESS Model performance period are due April 1, 2026, with model launch in July 2026; applications submitted later would start January 1, 2027. Because ACCESS is a rolling, decade-long model, some organizations may choose to stage entry. 

ACCESS is the most explicit Innovation Center opportunity to date on outcomes-based, tech-enabled chronic care in Traditional Medicare. It offers digital health and advanced care organizations a direct line to FFS beneficiaries with payment tied to results, not activities. Success will favor teams that combine clinical excellence, consumer-grade engagement, and API-level interoperability, as well as manage program integrity, ACO overlap, and beneficiary churn. 

For questions or support assessing readiness, developing an application, or operationalizing the model, contact Amy Bassano, , or Kate de Lisle

CMS Releases 2027 Advance Notice with Medicare Advantage and Part D Rates

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The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) released the  on January 26, 2026. The Advance Notice begins CMS鈥檚 annual rate-setting cycle and describes proposed updates to Medicare Advantage (MA) growth rates, benchmark rebasing, risk adjustment, Star Ratings, and Part D payment parameters. CMS previously released a鈥痠n November 2025 that included policy changes to the Star Ratings system and enrollment policies for MA and Part D starting in contract year 2027. (Read the 黑料不打烊 (黑料不打烊) summary here.) 

Comments on听the Advance Notice are due February 25, 2026, and听CMS will publish the final CY 2027 rate announcement no later than April 6, 2026.听听

This article provides an early look at the proposed methodological updates and draft capitation rates. Wakely, an 黑料不打烊 Company, will publish a detailed analysis of the Advance Notice in early February. 

Payment Impact on Medicare Advantage Organizations 

CMS estimates a national per capita MA growth rate of 5.10 percent from 2026 to 2027, with fee-for-service (FFS) non-end-stage renal disease (non-ESRD) growth of 5.10 percent and FFS dialysis end-stage renal disease (ESRD) growth of 6.17 percent. 

The听5.10听percent growth rate reflects projected increases in per听capita听FFS听Medicare spending for beneficiaries who are听aged/have听disabilities听and serves as the primary driver of 2027 benchmark updates, interacting with rebasing and risk adjustment changes to听determine听final capitation payments.听The growth rate听reflects听updates听to听how CMS pays for skin substitutes听in the 2026 Medicare Physician听Fee听Schedule. These updates resulted in significantly lower projected costs听and materially reduced听the growth听rate.听

These preliminary estimates inform the development of MA benchmarks and may change in the final rate announcement.听

Table 1. Estimated Impact of Proposed Payment Changes on Medicare Advantage Plan Payments, CY 2027 

听 听 听 听 听 听 听 听 听 听 听 听 听 听 听 听 听 听 听 听 Year-to-Year Percentage Change
Impact  CY 2027 Advance Notice  
Effective Growth Rate4.97%
Rebasing/Re-pricingTBD
Change in Star Ratings-0.03%
MA Coding Pattern Adjustment0%
Risk Model Revision and Normalization-3.32%
Sources of Diagnoses-1.53%
Expected Average Change0.09%
SourceCenters for Medicare & Medicaid Services. 2027 Medicare Advantage and Part D Advance Notice. January 26, 2026. Available at: https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/fact-sheets/2027-medicare-advantage-part-d-advance-notice. 

Medicare Advantage Benchmarks, Rebasing, and Risk Adjustment 

The Advance Notice describes CMS鈥檚 approach and changes that will affect payment to plans, including: 

  • Excluding from the risk adjustment process diagnoses submitted from chart reviews with unlinked claim records. In the Fact Sheet, CMS estimates this change will reduce Part C payments by 1.53 percent.听
  • Rebasing听county听FFS听rates for 2027 using 2020鈥2024 claims data, continuing听CMS鈥檚听practice of updating benchmarks annually to reflect the most current FFS experience. The Advance Notice also reiterates the statutory framework for calculating benchmarks, including applicable and specified amounts, benchmark caps, and quality bonus payments.听
  • Updating听the CMS Hierarchical Condition Category (CMS-HCC) and Prescription Drug Hierarchical Condition Category (RxHCC) risk adjustment models and associated normalization factors for CY 2027 and听continuing听to apply the statutory MA coding pattern difference adjustment to account for systematic differences in diagnosis coding between MA and FFS.听

Quality Bonus Payments, Star Ratings, and Part D Updates 

CMS states that contracts with 4 or more Stars receive a 5 percentage-point quality bonus, while new and low-enrollment contracts receive a 3.5percentage-point bonus. The Advance Notice also includes updates related to Part C and Part D Star Ratings measures and methodological refinements. 

For Part D, CMS outlines proposed updates to the defined standard benefit parameters for CY 2027, as well as changes to Part D risk adjustment, normalization, premium stabilization, reinsurance, and risk-sharing, with additional policy context provided in the Contract Year 2027 Medicare Advantage and Part D proposed rule. 

Connect with Us 

The CY 2027 Advance Notice provides early signals on benchmark growth, rebasing, and payment methodology changes that will shape MA and Part D payments听in听2027. Stakeholders should begin evaluating the potential implications for bid development, benefit design, and financial performance as CMS moves toward听finalizing听rates in April.听

黑料不打烊 supports Medicare Advantage and Part D stakeholders with payment impact modeling, scenario analysis, and strategic advisory services related to benchmark rebasing, risk adjustment, Star Ratings, and Part D payment policy to help organizations prepare for the CY 2027 rate announcement. 

For details about the finalized payment and policy rules,听contact our featured experts,鈥 and听.听

Preparing for Change: A Look at Proposed State Fiscal 2027 Budgets

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As of January 1, 2026, nine governors had released proposed budgets for state fiscal year (SFY) 2027. With the phase down of federal funding and substantial policy changes approved in the 2025 budget reconciliation act (P.L. 119-21, OBBBA), these proposals offer insights into how governors plan to manage mounting fiscal pressures, navigate new federal mandates, and position their programs for long-term sustainability. 

Today, 黑料不打烊 Information Services (黑料不打烊IS) published its first preliminary review of proposed SFY 2027 budget proposals. The initial installment includes budgets from Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Mississippi, New Mexico, South Dakota, Utah, Virginia, and Wyoming, with the latter two proposals covering the fiscal 2026鈥28 biennium. 

黑料不打烊IS will release periodic updates as additional governors publish their budget proposals鈥攖he same rolling approach we used in 2025 (here and here). Because 15 states enacted 2025鈥27 biennial budgets last year, 黑料不打烊IS also might review substantial mid-biennium health-related adjustments or supplemental funding. 

The remainder of this article provides a snapshot of several notable themes and emerging trends detailed in the full report. 

Implementation of New Federal Requirements 

State leaders are preparing budgets for SFY 2027 at a time of heightened fiscal stress and structural uncertainty. Entering 2026, governors are facing reductions in federal funding, particularly in Medicaid and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) funding. In addition, they are preparing for new federal requirements that will begin to take effect later this year, including narrower flexibilities for financing and Medicaid community engagement policies and more frequent eligibility redeterminations. 

Against this backdrop, governors are using FY 2027 budget proposals to comply with OBBBA鈥檚 mandates and to stabilize their safety net programs and realign state operations around stricter fiscal realities. 

Medicaid Work Requirements. Virginia鈥檚 proposed budget includes funding to implement federal Medicaid community engagement requirements, including a recommendation to add nine new authorized positions in SFY 2027 and 12 more in fiscal year 2028 to meet workload demands. In addition, South Dakota鈥檚 governor proposed amending the state鈥檚 2026 budget to secure funding to implement these requirements. 

Eligibility and Redetermination. Several governors are proposing investments to support heightened eligibility checks across Medicaid, SNAP, and Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF). For example, Colorado Gov. Jared Polis鈥檚 budget proposes $19.1 million to improve the state鈥檚 eligibility system for programs such as Medicaid, SNAP, and TANF. Utah鈥檚 proposed budget includes a recommended allocation of nearly $16.5 million to the Department of Workforce Services for 鈥淗.R. 1 Medicaid Eligibility Administration,鈥 and nearly $10 million for the 鈥淗.R. 1 SNAP Administrative Services.鈥 

SNAP ChangesStates are backfilling lost federal funding and investing in error reduction and system modernization. New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham鈥檚 proposed budget, for example, includes $37 million to replace the decrease in federal funding for SNAP administration ($4 million of which will support 150 new full-time positions), as well as $8.9 million for systems improvements to reduce payment errors in SNAP. South Dakota Gov. Larry Rhoden鈥檚 proposed budget includes $5.5 million to offset a reduction in SNAP federal funding. 

Strategic Cost Containment 

Considering OBBBA implementation and the effects that it will have on their budgets, our first review of governors鈥 budget proposals signals that states are taking an aggressive posture toward limiting expenditure growth in 2026 and 2027. Initial proposals include targeted reductions, tighter utilization management, and restrictions on benefits. 

Since the 2025 legislative session, Colorado has taken multiple steps to prepare for declining federal revenue. For example, Governor Polis鈥檚 proposed budget accounts for multiple actions approved through an amended executive order that would reduce spending to brace for OBBBA鈥檚 impacts. Examples include: 

  • Reducing provider rates to 85 percent of the Medicare reimbursement rate听
  • Establishing limits on Community First Choice services听
  • Adjusting听the听home health nursing and therapy services payment听methodology听
  • Introducing cost controls for Medicaid benefit categories that have shown disproportionate growth听
  • Implementing听a听$3,000 annual cap on adult Medicaid dental benefits听and a听$750 annual cap on dental benefits for individuals in the Cover All Coloradans program听
  • Changing听the听Cover All Coloradans behavioral health program from managed care to fee for service听
  • Reviewing provider fees听in anticipation of听possible State听Directed Payment approval from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS)听

Former Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin鈥檚 budget鈥攏ow inherited by Abilgail Spanberger following her inauguration January 17, 2026鈥攊ncludes multiple cost-containment proposals, such as: 

  • Anticipated adjustments to capitation rates after a review of Medicaid managed care organizations听
  • A $2,000 annual limit on adult dental services Medicaid coverage听
  • Elimination of听both听automatic rate increases for psychiatric residential treatment facilities and qualifying听addiction听and recovery treatment services providers听and听automatic biennial inflation increases for听medical听assistance听providers听
  • Restrictions on听emergency听maternity services to Medicaid听enrollees听who听are ineligible听for Medicaid听because听of their citizenship status听
  • Standardized听hourly limits across home and community-based听services听waivers听
  • Actions听related to听鈥渆nsuring appropriate utilization鈥 of services,听such as听applied听behavioral听analysis and crisis services听

States are expected to include additional cost-containment tools throughout 2026 and beyond as OBBBA鈥檚 fiscal effects become clearer over the coming months and years. 

What to Watch 

The budget proposals indicate the resources that executive agencies need and preview governors鈥 policy agendas for the year ahead. Stakeholders should track program reductions and rate changes, eligibility system investments, and shifts in care models. 

In addition, some of the announced budget proposals consider federal awards to states under the Rural Health Transformation Program (RHTP). For example, the Alaska Department of Health budget request addresses the state鈥檚 RHTP implementation plans, and Wyoming鈥檚 budget proposal outlines RHTP priorities. Many states are preparing RFP processes to operationalize their RHTP strategies and make progress on the goals of their initiatives. 

Connect with Us 

As federal funding uncertainties continue, states and other stakeholders will need to adapt their delivery systems, administrative structures, and financing models throughout OBBBA鈥檚 multiyear rollout. 黑料不打烊 offers expertise, analytics, and strategic advisory services needed to navigate this evolving landscape. For details contact Andrea Maresca and Kathleen Nolan

The full state of the states and governor budget report is available to 黑料不打烊IS subscribers. In addition, 黑料不打烊IS maintains a  that incorporates details of each initiative and the first year award.  

Outlook 2026: ACA Marketplace Trends鈥揂 Conversation with Michael Cohen and Zach Sherman

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As the 2026 Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplace open enrollment period nears its close鈥攁nd with enhanced subsidies expiring, rates shifting, and consumer behavior evolving鈥攓uestions about enrollment stability, affordability, and operational readiness have rapidly moved to the forefront. Andrea Maresca, Senior Principal, at 黑料不打烊, caught up with Zach Sherman, Managing Director for Coverage Policy and Program Design at 黑料不打烊, and , PhD, who leads much of the federal policy analysis advanced by Wakely, an 黑料不打烊 company, to unpack what they鈥檙e seeing so far.

Q: This year鈥檚 open enrollment period has been unusually complex. At the federal level, what stands out most so far? 

Michael: The headline is that new enrollment is down sharply, while returning consumers have held steadier than expected. That reflects the reality that the enhanced subsidies are gone, premiums have risen, and consumers are facing higher net costs across nearly every market. 

But nuance matters: The real question now is how many of these plan selections will effectuate鈥攎eaning consumers pay their first month premium, and how many will stay enrolled the entire year? Average effectuated enrollment throughout the year is what truly determines 2026 risk mix and market stability. 

Q: Enrollment appears to vary considerably from state to state. What are you hearing from state partners? 

Zach: It鈥檚 a tale of two markets. StateBased Exchanges (SBEs) are generally seeing less attrition and, in some cases, even modest increases in plan selections. The reason is simple: Many states are doing a lot of heavy lifting to offset the loss of federal support. 

For example, SBEs perform earlier and have more customized outreach. We鈥檝e also seen some states step in and offer state-funded subsidies, which are cushioning the affordability loss in places like New Mexico, Maryland, and California. 

While still early, the data suggest that states with heavy investment in awareness and enrollment assistance, operational support, and affordability are weathering the transition better because they have more tools to stabilize the consumer experience. 

Q: There鈥檚 been a lot of speculation about how consumers are responding to the end of enhanced subsidies. What are the early signs? 

Michael: Consumers appear to be buying leaner benefits or different metal tiers to manage premium increases. 

Another underrecognized but incredibly important dynamic is that autoreenrolled consumers may not effectuate coverage once they see the final outofpocket premium. That dynamic won鈥檛 be fully understood until March, April, and even May. 

Q: Idaho is a particularly interesting early case study. What are you learning from the first state to complete enrollment? 

Zach: Your Health Idaho鈥檚 open enrollment finished on December 15, and while they saw a slight increase in plan selections, state officials are not celebrating as they expect a large wave of cancellations鈥攗p to 20,000鈥攄ue to the expiring subsidies. 

That鈥檚 the clearest early indication that affordability is the defining issue of 2026. States are preparing for higher-than-usual enrollment attrition in quarters one and two (Q1 and Q2), and they鈥檙e thinking hard about customer service capacity as consumers navigate changing net premiums, increased deductibles and out-of-pocket costs, and nonpayment grace periods. 

Q: Are there policy levers states can still pull to mitigate affordability challenges going forward? 

Zach: We鈥檙e seeing states explore options for mitigating affordability gaps and enrollment losses, including through state subsidy programs and increased investment in existing reinsurance programs. SBEs are also leaning on their core competencies鈥攖ailored and specific education campaigns and enrollment and plan comparison tools鈥攖o help their customers cut through the noise and navigate to the best option within their budget.  

These aren鈥檛 perfect or quick fixes and most states don鈥檛 have the resources necessary to backstop the expiring subsidies, but state leaders increasingly view doing something as necessary to stabilize their markets. 

Q: What should health plans, exchanges, and policymakers watch most closely over the next three months? 

Michael: Effectuation, effectuation, effectuation. The composition of the effectuated population will define 2026 risk. 

Zach: Agree. In addition, future regulatory action on affordability, eligibility and enrollment processes, and program integrity. The federal government is expected to issue its annual payment notice, the proposed 2027 Notice of Benefits and Payment Parameters, in the near future. 

You can find more insights on the initial enrollment patterns to date in this 黑料不打烊-Wakely paper,  and register for the 2027 ACA Considerations: Proposed NBPP and Other Key Changes and Trends.  

Analysis of the Costs and Medicaid Payment Adequacy for Ground Ambulance Services in New York State

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Survey data from fiscal year (FY) 2022 suggest that entities that provide ground ambulance services in the State of New York are experiencing reimbursement challenges. 黑料不打烊, Inc. (黑料不打烊), contracted with the United New York Ambulance Network (UNYAN) to conduct an independent study of the costs of delivering ground ambulance services in the state and the adequacy of payment for these critical services. The 黑料不打烊-UNYAN survey data highlight the wide variation in costs within the ground ambulance industry in New York and the negative Medicaid margins the industry experiences. These data demonstrate that although ambulance entities of all sizes in New York have negative Medicaid margins, these margins worsen as entity size decreases and entities become more rural. Trends in negative margins appear to be linked to some degree to entities鈥 relative share of 鈥渞esponses without transport鈥 or uncompensated transports. This white paper poses important considerations for policymakers.

Outlook 2026: Rural Health Transformation Program

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As we kick off the new year,听黑料不打烊听(黑料不打烊)听is launching a new series of brief,听insightful听interviews听with our policy experts听on issues听that will define听2026鈥攚hat鈥檚 changing, why it matters, and how federal, state, and industry decisions will shape what happens next.听Building on听our earlier analysis of听the Rural Health Transformation Program听((RHTP),听here听and听here), this week, we听start听with a听pointed听look at听the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid听Services鈥檚听(CMS)听first year of RHTP awards.听

Rural Health, Ready or Not: CMS Wants Results in 2026

An interview with Kathleen Nolan, Senior Advisor, 黑料不打烊, and , Principal, Leavitt Partners, an 黑料不打烊 Company. 

Q: What do the new Rural Health Transformation Program awards tell us about US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and CMS priorities heading into 2026? 

Kathleen Nolan: One of the clearest signals is that CMS expects visible progress in 2026. This is not a program that gives states months of planning runway. The application made it clear that CMS wants states to start doing the activities they proposed right away鈥攏ot just planning or propping up existing systems. CMS wants to see meaningful movement on implementation in 2026, especially in the areas of workforce, infrastructure, technology modernization, and care delivery redesign. 

Sara Singleton: Exactly, and CMS is using this investment to reinforce some of the administration鈥檚 broader policy goals. Many state proposals leaned heavily into chronic disease prevention, chronic care management, and expanding supports that promote healthier lifestyles. That alignment isn鈥檛 accidental. The Administration is looking for real traction on these priorities, and RHTP gives states both the resources and the accountability framework to make progress. So, the message from CMS is clear: Move quickly, implement strategically, and show early gains in the areas that matter for long-term population health. 

Q: Was anything in the awards themselves surprising? 

Singleton: There was a lot of speculation about how wide the spread in funding levels might be, particularly for states鈥 discretionary initiatives. But the distribution was relatively tight; 32 states fell in the 鈥渁verage鈥 range of $190鈥$230 million, with only four states above $230 million and 13 below $190 million. That suggests CMS isn鈥檛 signaling dramatic differences in expected performance or ambition. 

Nolan: It reinforces that CMS is looking for consistent, measurable progress from every state. States that struggle to implement their plans could see less funding in about years. 

Q: What should states keep top of mind heading into year one? 

Nolan: Accountability. CMS has made it clear they will adjust budgets in later years if states don鈥檛 meet expectations on reporting and evaluation. That also means states need to know where the dollars are going and what they are getting for the investment. Year one performance really matters. 

Singleton: And it鈥檚 not just CMS. Congress and the Office of Inspector General for HHS will also be watching how states use these funds. 

Q: What rural health policy developments are you watching in early 2026? 

Nolan: Decisions about the leadership for these initiatives and state legislatures. Federal investment can only go so far. States will need strong leaders and supportive policies to accelerate and sustain RHTP efforts in year one. What legislatures choose to prioritize will shape the impact of RHTP far beyond year one. 

Tracking Medicaid鈥檚 Growth: FFY 2025 Spending and T-MSIS Data Provide Insights on Managed Care Spending

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This week, our鈥In Focus鈥痵ection highlights findings from a 黑料不打烊 Information Services (黑料不打烊IS) analysis of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) preliminary CMS-64 Medicaid expenditure report for federal fiscal year (FFY) 2025. The data show total medical services expenditures reached $971.4 billion across all states and territories, up 6.9 percent from FFY 2024. 

This CMS-64 spending detail provides important context as states prepare for their upcoming legislative sessions and begin implementing changes required under the 2025 budget reconciliation act (P.L. 119-21, OBBBA). Early fiscal and operational pressures will stem from changes to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and preparations for community engagement requirements for Affordable Care Act (ACA) Medicaid expansion enrollees. In subsequent years, pressures will intensify because of major changes to provider tax financing and new federal limits on state directed payments in 2027 and early 2028. 

In this article, we provide a deeper review of Medicaid spending, including the federal-state financing split. As Medicaid agencies prepare for upcoming spring sessions and anticipate potential program changes under OBBBA, it is notable that  report an at least fifty percent likelihood of a Medicaid budget shortfall in FFY 2026. 

Growth and Drivers in Medicaid Managed Care Spending 

The 黑料不打烊IS analysis looks at CMS-64 preliminary estimates of Medicaid spending by state for FFY 2025. CMS  state expenditures through the automated Medicaid Budget and Expenditure System/State Children鈥檚 Health Insurance Budget and Expenditure System (MBES/CBES). 

While enrollment decreased for most states following the COVID-19 public health emergency unwinding, states saw an uptick in expenditures due to increased state directed payments, greater utilization and sicker populations, higher drug costs, increased provider rates, and greater use of long-term services and supports and behavioral health. 

Key findings from 黑料不打烊IS鈥 analysis (see Table 1), include: 

  • Total Medicaid managed care spending (federal and state share听combined)听reached听$550.5听billion听in听FFY 2025,听up from听$517.5听billion听in听FFY 2024.听
  • This听amount听represents听a听6.4听percent听year-over-year increase from听FFY 2024听to听FFY 2025.听
  • Managed听care听accounted for 56.7听percent听of total Medicaid spending in听FFY 2025, down听0.3听percentage points听from the previous听year.听
  • The听$33 billion听increase from FFY 2024 to FFY 2025 exceeds the听$9.4 billion听increase seen the year prior, reflecting renewed growth following the unwinding transition period.听

These figures include spending on comprehensive risk-based managed care organizations (MCOs), prepaid inpatient health plans (PIHPs), and prepaid ambulatory health plans (PAHPs). PIHPs and PAHPs refer to prepaid health plans that provide a subset of services, such as dental or behavioral health care. This total is exclusive of fee-based programs such as primary care case management models. 

Table 1. Medicaid MCO Expenditures as a Percentage of Total Medicaid Expenditures, FFY 2020鈥2025 (in millions) 

Annual Medicaid managed care expenditures have grown consistently with total Medicaid expenditures. After slower growth in FFY 2024鈥攚hich aligned with the post-COVID-19 policy unwinding period when many states completed eligibility redeterminations鈥擣FY 2025 again experienced an uptick in managed care growth (see Figure 1). 

Figure 1. Total and MCO Medicaid Expenditures, FFY 2020鈥2025 ($M)

Federal versus State Share Spending 

The preliminary FFY 2025 expenditure data provides a baseline before OBBBA鈥檚 changes are scheduled for implementation and as states continue to face Medicaid funding challenges. In FFY 2025, federal funding accounted for 64.2 percent of FFY 2025 spending, and non-federal matching funds accounted for 35.8 percent (see Table 2). Particularly later in 2027, 2028, and subsequent years, Medicaid expansion states stand to see disproportionally larger increases in their share of spending. 

Table 2. Federal versus State Share of Medicaid Expenditures, FFY 2020鈥2025 (in millions)

T-MSIS Data Adds Detail to CMS-64 MCO Spending 

To complement CMS-64 macro-spending trends, 黑料不打烊 developed a methodology allowing us to use Transformed Medicaid Statistical Information System (T-MSIS) data to approximate managed care spending by service category. Although T-MSIS enables more granular views (e.g., professional services, inpatient/outpatient hospital services, skilled nursing facilities (SNFs), HCBS, clinics, pharmaceuticals), the most recent dataset typically lags one to two years behind CMS-64 totals. 

黑料不打烊鈥檚 analysis of the T-MSIS data shows that while managed care remains the dominant delivery system model for Medicaid, spending by provider types helps contextualize the CMS-64 report. Notably, the CMS-64 reports FFY25 data and our report below on T-MSIS disaggregation uses 2023 data. Although the T-MSIS and CMS-64 data are for different years, it still highlights the main components of the largest spending component of the CMS-64 with more recent data. 

The 2023 T-MSIS analysis shows the following: 

  • Professional fees are the lead spending category, with听nearly听30听percent听of spending directed听toward听payments to physicians and other practitioners (e.g., physician assistants, nurse practitioners). Given that T-MSIS data are built around billing codes, services that traditionally may be considered part of a bundled rate (i.e.,听a large portion听of physician services delivered in hospitals and clinics) are听essentially unbundled听and considered professional fees.听
  • Hospital spending听(inpatient plus outpatient), SNF听costs, and professional fees听together听account for close to 75听percent of spending in听CY 2023.听

Figure 2. T-MSIS Medicaid Spending by Service Category 2023 (MCO disaggregated plus FFS)

What to Watch 

Because Medicaid is such a big part of state government spending, outlays for Medicaid will always be a focus and challenge for states. Upcoming state legislative sessions and OBBBA driven changes will begin in 2026 with SNAP pressures and major operational preparations for community engagement requirements for expansion states. Preparations for new limits on provider taxes and state directed payments will likely begin immediately, but the true impacts will occur in 2027 and early 2028. States will need to tailor their programs under funding constraints. 

Connect with Us 

黑料不打烊IS, a subscription-based tool that 黑料不打烊 offers, provides state-by-state analysis of the CMS-64 data, Medicaid managed care enrollment trends, and state budget reporting. For more information about an 黑料不打烊IS subscription, contact Andrea Maresca and Alona Nenko. For details on T-MSIS data, contact Matt Powers and Shreyas Ramani

Webinar Replay – 2027 ACA Considerations: Proposed NBPP and Other Key Changes and Trends

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This webinar was held on February 4, 2026 at 12pm ET.

Upon the release of the CMS final 2027 Notice of Benefit and Payment Parameters and the accompanying Letter to Issuers in January, health plans and state policymakers will face critical decisions that shape the next phase of the individual and small group markets.

Experts from 黑料不打烊 and Wakely discussed what the proposed rule means in practice and how stakeholders can begin preparing now. This webinar provided a clear overview of the final 2027 NBPP** and Letter to Issuers, highlighted the most significant policy changes and clarifications, and explored the operational and strategic implications for states. Speakers focused on how the final policies may influence market stability, affordability, program administration, and longer-term planning for 2027 and beyond. 听听

** We expect that the NBPP will have been released before the webinar takes place, but if the NBPP is not yet released we will cover likely scenarios based on our best available information.

Learning Objectives:

鈥nderstanding the proposed 2027 NBPP and Letter to Issuers

鈥wareness of key implications for states and issuers

鈥iscussion of key planning considerations for 2027

Executive Branch Actions Target Drug Affordability in New Pricing Models

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The federal drug pricing landscape continues to undergo significant transformation as executive branch agencies advance an ambitious suite of regulatory and model testing initiatives intended to lower the costs associated with the Medicare and Medicaid programs. In response to ongoing concerns about rising out-of-pocket costs, increasing pressure to align US prices with those paid internationally, and the continued implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), federal agencies are reshaping how prescription drugs are priced, reimbursed, and negotiated in federally financed programs. 

The current policy environment reflects a growing emphasis on benchmarking drug prices to those in peer nations, referred to as 鈥渕ost favored nation鈥 (MFN) benchmarks, and accelerating actions that require or encourage manufacturers to offer lower net prices. 黑料不打烊 (黑料不打烊), is tracking these developments in the public payer space, replicating Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) payment methodologies, and modeling alternative policies to assist life science companies, payers, and other stakeholders. 

In this article, we review the administration鈥檚 recent efforts to reduce Medicare and Medicaid spending on drugs and biologics, including confidential manufacturer negotiations and three new models that together could reshape pricing dynamics across federal programs. 

Executive Branch Negotiations Seek to Drive Access to MFN Discounts 

In 2025, the administration issued an  directing federal agencies to pursue strategies to establish MFN pricing, linking US prices for certain drugs to the lowest (or second lowest) adjusted net prices among a targeted set of peer countries. Following the order, federal officials sent  to 17 major pharmaceutical and biotechnology manufacturers, urging them to negotiate agreements that would voluntarily align prices with MFN-based benchmarks. 

To date, 14 manufacturers have signed , though full details remain confidential. These agreements are understood to accomplish the following: 

  • Provide听state听Medicaid听programs with听access to听MFNbased听discounts听
  • Require that new drugs be launched in the United听States听at听MFNaligned听prices听
  • Offer certain drugs at discounted听directtoconsumer听prices through a forthcoming 鈥淭rumpRx鈥 program, expected to launch later this year听

Reports suggest that manufacturers entering these MFN-related arrangements may receive exemptions from several federal actions, including the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation (Innovation Center) demonstration models described below and certain tariff-related policies. 

MFNLinked Models Designed to Lower Drug Costs Across Medicare and Medicaid 

Along with the negotiation efforts, the CMS Innovation Center has proposed three models that would test MFNbased pricing through structured rebate mechanisms. Each model targets different segments of the market while testing how international benchmarks could be integrated into federal drug payment policy. 

New Models Test Alternatives to Inflation Rebates 

Announced in December 2025, the  and the  are designed to test alternative approaches to the Inflation Reduction Act鈥檚 (IRA)  policies. CMS plans to test the models鈥 potential for market driven price reductions if manufacturers choose to lower list prices instead of paying MFN-based rebates. 

Key features of the GLOBE Model are as follows: 

  • Applies听to听25 percent of听Medicare听fee-for-service听(FFS)听beneficiaries听using certain听Part B drugs听
  • Beginning in October 2026,听becomes听mandatory听for select drugs and targets听highspending,听physicianadministered听Part B categories, excluding products already subject to IRA听negotiations, generics, biosimilars, and certain听lowspend听products听
  • No changes to听physician and hospital听reimbursement,听although beneficiaries听expected to听see reduced cost sharing听

The GUARD Model will similarly test whether applying MFN-based rebates to Medicare Part D drugs will lower Medicare costs. Key aspects of this model include: 

  • Fiveyear听model听that would start听January 1, 2027听
  • Target听therapeutic categories with more than $69 million in annual Part D spending听
  • No impact on听plan bids and beneficiary cost sharing听

These models rely on pricing data from 19 countries. Manufacturers that voluntarily submit net price information would trigger quarterly benchmark updates; otherwise, CMS will use a fixed list price based benchmark for the entire pilot period. 

CMS is seeking  on whether additional categories, for example cell and gene therapies, should be excluded from GLOBE. GUARD is also open for  through February 23, 2026. 

GENErating cost Reductions fOr US Medicaid (GENEROUS) Model 

The , expected to begin in 2026, creates a voluntary pathway for state Medicaid programs and manufacturers to enter supplemental rebate agreements tied to MFNaligned prices. MFN pricing under this model is based on the second lowest net price in G7 countries plus Denmark and Switzerland. GENEROUS is also expected to align with pricing commitments negotiated through the administration鈥檚 manufacturer agreements. 

Key Considerations and Potential Impacts 

The combined effect of federal negotiations and Innovation Center models could be substantial, though outcomes will depend on manufacturer participation, benchmark stability, and operational feasibility. Key considerations include: 

  • State听Medicaid savings, especially听the extent to which听MFN鈥憀inked rebates exceed existing supplemental rebates听
  • Reduced Medicare beneficiary cost sharing for Part B included in GLOBE听
  • Shifts in manufacturer pricing strategies, including potential changes to US launch prices听
  • Interactions with the IRA, particularly Part D redesign and Part B inflation penalties听

Connect with Us 

黑料不打烊 experts continue to track the federal drug pricing landscape closely as comments, operational details, and implementation timelines evolve across these initiatives. Our team replicates CMS payment methodologies and models alternative policies using the most current Medicare FFS and Medicare Advantage (100%) claims data. 

For more information听and听questions about the policies described听in this article, please contact听our experts below.

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